Expected Insights: Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC
(image via Houston Dynamo FC)
Expected Insights is your data-driven look ahead to the Houston Dynamo’s next match. We break down the key numbers—expected goals, chance creation, pressing metrics, and tactical trends—that could shape the outcome. From midfield duels to final-third efficiency, we’re diving into the stats that matter most for the Orange. If you want to understand how the Dynamo can tilt the pitch in their favor, you’re in the right place. Today we take a look into tonight’s match against Austin FC.
Austin have dominated this fixture as of late, with a record of 6W-0D-1L in all comps. That one loss came courtesy of a Coco Carrasquilla bicycle kick in the last MLS matchup between these teams at Q2 Stadium.
Austin have only scored 20 goals this season in MLS play, lowest in the league. However, they have been extremely unlucky when looking at xG, as they have 30.3xG in MLS play (the same as the Dynamo), meaning they have underperformed their xG by 10.3, the biggest underperformance in the MLS this season.
On the other side of the ball, Austin have been one of the best defensive teams in MLS, conceding just 24 goals (T-1st in MLS). They have conceded just 8 goals at home in 11 games (best in MLS). They have however only scored 8 goals in those home games too (T-lowest in MLS).
Austin FC were one of the clubs to not participate in Leagues Cup this season, meaning that they have had 2 weeks to recover since their last MLS game. In the last month, Austin have played just 3 games, posting a record of 2W-0L-1D. In that same timeframe, the Dynamo have played 6 games, gaining just 1 point and losing 5 games.
This game will also the be the first game on the road in nearly a month for the Dynamo. Houston will be hoping to gain some much needed momentum on the road, where they have a record of 3W-4L-4D so far this season.
This weekend will be a great chance for the Dynamo to leapfrog into the playoff spots with 9th place Colorado and 10th San Jose playing against 3rd place Minnesota and 2nd place Vancouver respectively.