Expected Insights: Houston Dynamo at Colorado Rapids
(image via Houston Dynamo FC)
Expected Insights is your data-driven look ahead to the Houston Dynamo’s next match. We break down the key numbers—expected goals, chance creation, pressing metrics, and tactical trends—that could shape the outcome. From midfield duels to final-third efficiency, we’re diving into the stats that matter most for the Orange. If you want to understand how the Dynamo can tilt the pitch in their favor, you’re in the right place. Today we take a look into tonight’s match against the Colorado Rapids
The Dynamo have an all time record of 2W-6L-6D at Colorado, but they haven't lost in Colorado since 2021 and haven't conceded a goal in their last 222 minutes at DSG Park. In their most recent outing at Colorado last year, Brad Smith scored a 96th minute winner for the Dynamo.
The biggest weakness for Colorado this season has been their defense, with 50.1xG conceded (2nd worst in MLS) and conceding 5.28 Shots on Target per 90 (Worst in MLS). They have overperformed their xGA with just 45 goals conceded - an overperformance of 5.1 Goals.
The Colorado offense has struggled to create shots on target, with just 3.48 Shots on Target per 90 (6th Worst in MLS). That number is still greater than Houston’s 3.31 Shots on Target per 90 (2nd Worst in MLS).
Despite the Colorado offense not creating many shots on target, Brazilian forward Rafael Navarro has been clinical with 15 Goals in addition to 3 assists in all competitions. In addition to his goalscoring prowess, Navarro is also a threat while pressing high, with 2.24 Tackles and Interceptions per 90 (98th percentile among forwards).
The Rapids sold star DP10 Djordje Mihailovic and acquired Paxten Aaronson this summer from Frankfurt as his replacement. Paxten had a bright outing in his first start in Burgundy and Blue, winning 10 of his 16 duels and winning a penalty. Aaronson also totaled 6 passes into the final third in addition to 5 dribbles into the final third as well.
Despite their new signing's debut prowess, the Rapids lost 4-2 at Sporting Kansas City in a game they once led 2-1. The Rapids conceded 2 goals off corner kicks that game, and now against Houston they face Jack McGlynn, who has 6 GCA (Goal Creating Actions) from dead balls (the most in MLS).