Expected Insights: Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC
(image via Austin FC)
Expected Insights is your data-driven look ahead to the Houston Dynamo’s next match. We break down the key numbers—expected goals, chance creation, pressing metrics, and tactical trends—that could shape the outcome. From midfield duels to final-third efficiency, we’re diving into the stats that matter most for the Orange. If you want to understand how the Dynamo can tilt the pitch in their favor, you’re in the right place. Today we take a look into Saturday’s match against Austin FC.
As Houston Dynamo prepare to host Austin FC, recent history suggests fans can expect another nail-biter. The last three meetings between the two Texas rivals have all been decided by a single goal, but Austin has had the upper hand overall. Since their entry into MLS in 2021, Austin has taken seven wins from eleven matchups with Houston—those seven losses are tied for the most the Dynamo have suffered against any single opponent in that time.
But while past results favor Austin, the story this season is one of evolution for the Verde—especially on the defensive side. Under new manager Nico Estévez, Austin FC has transformed from one of MLS’s leakiest defenses into one of its most disciplined. Last season, Austin allowed 1.69 expected goals against (xGA) per 90 minutes—fourth worst in the league. In 2025, that number has dropped dramatically to just 1.13 xGA/90, currently fifth-best in MLS. If we dig even deeper, the improvement is even more striking. If you remove their 5-1 blowout loss to Vancouver—where they conceded 4.5 xG—Austin’s xGA per 90 drops to a jaw-dropping 0.7. That would put them on pace to be one of the stingiest defenses in MLS history.
On the other side of the ball, Austin is getting gritty two-way play from striker Brandon Vázquez. Known primarily for his scoring, Vázquez is also a relentless presser, ranking in the 99th percentile among forwards in defensive metrics like blocks and interceptions. His ability to disrupt from the front could spell trouble for a Houston backline that is tied for 8th in defensive errors leading to shots.
For the Dynamo, maintaining composure under pressure and converting their chances may be the key to flipping the narrative in this rivalry. With both teams trending in different directions defensively, this next chapter in the Texas clash could be the most compelling yet.