Expected Insights: Houston Dynamo vs Colorado Rapids

(image via MLSsoccer.com)

Expected Insights is your data-driven look ahead to the Houston Dynamo’s next match. We break down the key numbers—expected goals, chance creation, pressing metrics, and tactical trends—that could shape the outcome. From midfield duels to final-third efficiency, we’re diving into the stats that matter most for the Orange. If you want to understand how the Dynamo can tilt the pitch in their favor, you’re in the right place. Today we take a look into Saturday’s match against the Colorado Rapids.

• The Dynamo should head into their upcoming matchup with the Colorado Rapids full of confidence—and with good reason. Houston is undefeated in its last six meetings with Colorado, a streak that dates back to 2021. Under head coach Ben Olsen, the Dynamo have posted a 3-0-1 record against the Rapids, good for a 75% win rate—the highest against any Western Conference opponent in the Olsen era.

• While Houston has conceded 12 times this season, the Rapids are also grappling with some defensive concerns. Colorado has allowed 13.4 non-penalty expected goals (xG) this season, the third-highest total in Major League Soccer. They’ve also been porous in midfield, conceding an average of 166 progressive passes per game—second-most in the league.

• Despite the defensive woes, the Rapids do boast one of the league’s brightest offensive talents in Djordje Mihailovic. The midfielder is currently leading MLS in expected assists (xA) with 4.2, well ahead of the next-best mark of 2.9. He’s also fourth in total crosses (59) and tied for third in key passes (23), serving as the creative engine of the Colorado attack.

If Colorado is to snap their losing streak against Houston, they’ll need Mihailovic to be at his very best—and for the rest of the squad to step up defensively. Otherwise, the Dynamo may once again prove too much to handle.