Matchday 1 Momentum: Why the Dynamo’s Opening Win Could Mean More in 2026
The Houston Dynamo finally had an opening game to remember, as they beat Eastern Conference side Chicago Fire, which marked the team’s first opening day win since 2021. And, if previous seasons are any indication, Houston is already in a great position to make the postseason thanks to their victory.
When an MLS team wins on Matchday 1, the data over the last three seasons suggests that those teams are more likely to make the postseason compared to the league average. Now, only 31 teams have won their Matchday 1 matchups in the past three seasons, a small sample size. However, the pattern is consistent, and large enough, to warrant a closer look.
Listed below are all the teams that won their Matchday 1 matchup since 2023 (the first year that had the current postseason set up) and their final conference standings. As a reminder, the top nine teams in both the Eastern and Western conferences make the postseason, with the eighth and ninth ranked teams qualifying as play-in teams.
2023
Cincinnati - 1st in the East
St. Louis - 1st in the West
Orlando - 2nd in the East
Seattle - 2nd in the West
Philadelphia - 4th in the East
New England - 5th in the East
Salt Lake - 5th in the West
Atlanta - 6th in the East
Nashville - 7th in the East
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Portland - 10th in the West
Minnesota - 11th in the West
D.C. - 12th in the East
Miami - 14th in the East
2024
Miami - 1st in the East
LAFC - 1st in the West
Columbus - 2nd in the East
Charlotte - 5th in the East
Minnesota - 6th in the West
Portland - 9th in the West
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D.C. - 10th in the East
Dallas - 11th in the West
2025
Philadelphia - 1st in the East
San Diego - 1st in the West
Vancouver - 2nd in the West
Cincinnati -2nd in the East
LAFC - 3rd in the West
Austin - 6th in the West
Columbus - 7th in the East
Dallas - 7th in the West
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San Jose - 10th in the West
Atlanta - 14th in the East
The percentage of Matchday 1 winning teams that made the postseason over the past three seasons is approximately 74%, substantially higher than the percentage of overall teams that make the playoffs, which is 60%. It seems like early-season momentum is a big piece towards a team making a run.
Of course, losing your first matchup isn’t by any means a season-ending event. The Dynamo themselves have had recent success in 2023 and 2024 without clinching an opening day win. But, for the first time since the start of this new playoff format, the Dynamo have started off strong. It’s only one win in a long season, but according to the numbers, it’s a win that matters.