Expected Insights: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

(image via Houston Dynamo FC)

Expected Insights is your data-driven look ahead to the Houston Dynamo’s next match. We break down the key numbers—expected goals, chance creation, pressing metrics, and tactical trends—that could shape the outcome. From midfield duels to final-third efficiency, we’re diving into the stats that matter most for the Orange. If you want to understand how the Dynamo can tilt the pitch in their favor, you’re in the right place. Today we take a look into tonight’s match against the San Jose Earthquakes.

• The Dynamo have dominated San Jose in the past, posting a record of 19W-10L-5D all time. That improves to 11W-1D-2L when at home. Since Ben Olsen took over as Houston's head coach, the team has scored in every meeting between the clubs and holds a 5W-1L-1D against the Quakes.

• The Quakes were torrid last season, scoring the 5th fewest goals and conceding the most in the MLS en route to finishing bottom of the table. This season under the coaching of Bruce Arena, the Quakes now average the most xG of any team in MLS (1.90 per 90). In contrast, the Dynamo average 1.26xG per 90 (22nd in MLS).

• The Quakes have still struggled on the defensive side of the game, conceding 1.67xGA per 90 (4th worst in MLS). The Dynamo concede 1.40xGA per 90 (12th in MLS).

• The Dynamo should aim to keep Cristian Espinoza's involvement in the game to a minimum. He currently ranks 2nd behind Carles Gil in SCA (Shot Creating Actions) this season. Espinoza has the 2nd most crosses of any player in MLS, averaging 10.8 a game in 2025.

• San Jose's strike duo of Josef Martinez and Chico Arango have been lethal this year, combining for 23 goals this season. They also have former LA Galaxy striker Preston Judd off the bench, who has 5 goals on the year, including a brace against the Dynamo in their earlier meeting on the year.