Expected Insights: Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis CITY SC
(image via Houston Dynamo FC)
Expected Insights is your data-driven look ahead to the Houston Dynamo’s next match. We break down the key numbers—expected goals, chance creation, pressing metrics, and tactical trends—that could shape the outcome. From midfield duels to final-third efficiency, we’re diving into the stats that matter most for the Orange. If you want to understand how the Dynamo can tilt the pitch in their favor, you’re in the right place. Today we take a look into tonight’s match against St. Louis CITY SC.
The Houston Dynamo haven’t defeated St. Louis before in MLS play. They’re the only club, along with FC Cincinnati, that the Dynamo have faced and haven’t beaten. Both home games against St. Louis CITY ended in draws, although the Dynamo did get the better of them in CONCACAF Champions League play last season.
St. Louis have the sixth-worst attack in the league, scoring just 18 goals in 19 matches. However, according to xG, they’ve been extremely unlucky, underperforming their 25.8xG (15th in MLS) by 7.8 goals, the 2nd biggest underperformance in the league so far.
The Dynamo will have to be wary of St. Louis’s target man João Klauss, who after a slow start to the season with just one goal in his first 14 games, has found form with 5 goals in his last 4 matches. That stretch includes a hat trick vs LA Galaxy, the first in St. Louis’s club history.
Another key player to watch is former St. Pauli standout Marcel Hartel. He’s completed 52 key passes this season, the second-most in MLS, and has been especially dangerous from set pieces, averaging 1.28 Shot Creating Actions (SCA) per 90 from dead-ball situations.
The Dynamo will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak. The last time Houston dropped four straight was back in the summer of 2022, during Paulo Nagamura’s tenure. To avoid another loss, the Dynamo will need Ezequiel Ponce to step up. The Argentinian DP has struggled in the last two games, generating just 0.3xG during that stretch.